You don’t have to take my word for it. Let’s compare the average of pre-election polls — computed by FiveThirtyEight and ...

ABC News is projecting that Trump is expected to win Indiana’s 11 electoral votes. That is not a surprise. In previous ...

N.C. is a key swing state in the race for president. Here's what final rounds of polls are predicting on Election Day.

President Joe Biden pulled ahead of former President Donald Trump in FiveThirtyEight’s latest average of polls with the president leading in the last five national polls measured. Biden posted ...

National polls indicate a tight presidential race on Election Day. How accurate are the polls, and when will we know who won?

Just before Election Day, national polls indicate a tight presidential race. How accurate are the polls, and when will we ...

According to pollster Nate Silver 's forecast, Vice President Kamala Harris now has a 50 percent chance of winning the Electoral College to former President Donald Trump 's 49.6 percent. It also notes ...

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major ... which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

Through Monday, Nov. 4, 83 million Americans had already cast their ballots in the 2024 election. On Tuesday, Nov. 5 - Election Day - millions more will join them. Their votes this year will matter ...

Polls are more reliable in swing states, especially in the Sun Belt. Want to know who will win the 2024 presidential election? Flip a coin. The race is very likely to come down to seven key swing ...

How can two polls say two different things? And can you even trust polls, anyway? Here at 538, we cover polls year-round, so we'd like to share with you some tips we've learned over the years on ...

Polls are almost always at least a bit off. Some of that is due to imperfect assumptions about what the likely voter ...