Exponential smoothing is a formalization of the familiar learning process, which is a practical basis for statistical forecasting. Higher orders of smoothing are defined by the operator St n(x) =α St ...

Methods Three models for yearly time series predictions were built: autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), simple exponential smoothing (SES), and Holt's double expansional smoothing (HDES) ...

A modification is proposed to forecasting systems employing exponential smoothing whereby the response rate is varied and made to depend on the value of a tracking signal. In a simple system, this is ...