The key to the severity of impacts in the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico from strengthening Erin depends on how soon a turn to the northwest occurs with a near-miss versus a direct hit.

Tropical Storm Erin formed in the eastern Atlantic Ocean on Monday, becoming the fifth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season. Newsweek's live blog is closed.

Forecast model tracks show a turn or curve to the northwest and north. This turn is expected to keep Erin 400-500+ miles off the Southeast Coast. We will watch the forecast models closely in case there are any shifts in the forecast track. Right now, confidence is increasing Erin does not directly impact Coastal Georgia or the Lowcountry.